Skip to content
Relae docsdocs

Forecasting in three bands

A single forecast number is either optimistic or useless. Relae shows three, because the distance between them is the part you can act on.

The three bands

Section titled “The three bands”

Raised. Money in hand. Banked, reconciled, attached to a record. This number is a fact.

Expected. Raised, plus the gifts you have projected. A renewal from a donor who has given every year for nine years. A grant you have been told is coming. Judgment, but grounded judgment.

If every ask lands. Expected, plus every outstanding ask at its full amount. This is a ceiling, not a plan. Nobody closes every ask.

Three forecast bands against a goalA goal of $300,000. Raised, the money already in hand, is$182,000. Expected, which adds gifts you have projected, is$268,000. If every ask lands, which adds every outstanding ask, is $341,000. The goal line sits between expected and if every ask lands, so the year is on track only if the outstanding asks come in. The gap between expected and the goal is $32,000.GOAL $300,000Raisedmoney in hand$182,000Expectedplus projected gifts$268,000If every ask landsplus asks outstanding$341,000$32,000 to findThe goal sits between expected and if every ask lands, so the year turns on the asks outstanding.

Reading the gap

Section titled “Reading the gap”

Where the goal line falls tells you what kind of year you are having.

Below raised. You have already cleared the goal. Worth checking the goal was right.

Between raised and expected. On track if your projections hold. Protect them: the renewals in that band are the ones to make sure of.

Between expected and if-every-ask-lands. The common case, and the useful one. You get there only if outstanding asks close. This tells you where to spend the quarter.

Above if-every-ask-lands. You cannot reach the goal from current pipeline even if everything lands. That is not a failure, it is early warning, and there is time to build pipeline or to have an honest conversation with the board.

Pledges are firmer than projections

Section titled “Pledges are firmer than projections”

A written pledge is a commitment, not a guess, and Relae counts it separately from a speculative projection: the forecast shows written and verbal pledges as distinct fills on the bar. A multi-year pledge is recorded as instalments, so ask your finance lead which year each one should land in and check the forecast agrees before you report it.

Relae distinguishes written commitments from verbal ones, because they are not the same thing when a board asks how sure you are.

Multi-year campaigns

Section titled “Multi-year campaigns”

A capital or endowment campaign runs across years, and blending it into your annual goal makes both numbers meaningless. Relae tracks multi-year campaigns apart, so annual fundraising is measured against annual goals.

Pace

Section titled “Pace”

Halfway through the year with half the goal raised sounds fine, and often is not. Giving is seasonal. Most Canadian charities take a large share of annual revenue in the final quarter, so being at fifty percent in June may be ahead of where you should be, and being at fifty percent in November is not.

Relae reports progress against your fiscal year, not against the calendar, so a year ending in June is measured on its own terms.

Next

Section titled “Next”